October featured unseasonably cold temperatures for much of the month across the Tennessee Valley, including the Tri-Cities, with temperature anomalies averaging some 5-8° below climatological normals. What will November feature? Let’s take a look at the next couple of weeks at least.
To The GEFS*
Pattern Skews Very Mild, Occasionally Wet Coming Up:
Already the last few days haven’t been quite as unseasonably chilly as what we saw in moments like the third week of October when early-season snow flurries fell in parts of the region. Why is it getting warmer? The reason for the increase in temperatures has been the pullback of the trough in the jet stream into more northern and western areas of the United States. This centers the trough of cold into places like the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, while a ridge of high pressure builds over the East. This promotes a southerly flow and sends warm, moist air northward from the Gulf Of Mexico into our region. If you’ll notice, we’ve seen isolated to scattered rain chances, and that will continue *occasionally* into next week due to the center of high pressure being centered north of our region. Temperatures will continue to increase this weekend into next week in much of the Eastern US, including the Tennessee Valley, and the Tri-Cities due to high pressure ridging just to our north.
High temperatures this weekend into early next week will soar well into the 70s, even with some rain chances, and 80° readings cannot be ruled out, which would challenge near record territory. Overnight lows may be rather balmy for this time of year with 50-60° lows expected for many areas. Temperatures may skew above normal relative to this time of year through as late as at least the 10th of the month. Additionally, occasional rain chances will be possible with a front late Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation chances may again be elevated a few days later if tropical or subtropical development occurs off the Southeast Coast . If there is development that is steered in a counter-clockwise fashion around the periphery of that ridge, our rain chances may increase again for that timeframe.
Development Next Week*
Changes Possible Mid-Month:
Meanwhile, things are shifting in the pattern and the seeds are already being planted. You have a ridge beginning to build in Alaska over the next few days, and as we get into next week we see it beginning to expand to cover more of the Western US. This encourages the trough of colder air to progress eastward across the Plains and toward the Eastern US as the ridge providing the warmth begins to break down.
For Second Weekend Of November*
By the middle part of the month, potentially as soon as the second weekend of November, the GEFS and EPS ensemble modeling indicate a trough is forming over the Eastern US and colder air is beginning to make a comeback in our neck of the woods.
Projection For Mid-November*
Projection For Mid-November*
According to various long-range data and global teleconnections, this idea may have some weight and could be the beginning of a colder pattern that could take us into the holiday season. There can certainly be some changes to long range forecasts such as these, but that is something we’ll be keeping a close eye on in the days ahead, and will keep you informed about here on Tri-Cities Weather and Alert Crew. Have a great week!
– StormTrackerSacker
Assistant Forecaster TWAC2
*Model Images Courtesy Of Dr Levi Cowan and Tropical Tidbits*