It\’s that time! Our preliminary winter outlook for 2014-2015! We hope you are enjoying the nice fall weather as winter is getting closer and closer! We have studied and gone through lots of data over the past few days and we are happy to present to you our winter outlook! We originally planned on releasing our outlook near Halloween, but heck, why not now, :).
We have also provided a detailed discussion below on how we came to our conclusions.
Key Points For The Tri-Cities:
- Below Average To Average Temperatures
- Near Average To Above Average Snowfall
Predicted Total Snow Amount For Winter 2014-2015:
- 14 Inches
Discussion:
So how did we come to our conclusions? One of the things you may have heard about is the possibility of \”El Nino\” or a flow of unusually warm water along the western coast of South America that causes many changes in the weather across the world. Forecasters are currently predicting a weak El Nino which could have an impact on our temperatures and snowfall for this winter. El nino winters tend to start out slow but have big finishes with blockbuster snow events. There are also many other factors we considered as well as long term models.
(Models converge on a weak El Nino)
When we look at previous weak El Nino events, they tend to have more snow and colder temperatures than average.
(Tri-Cities Data)
(Tri-Cities Data) (December – February)Our predicted snowfall is more then the 9 year average, but less than the all time average snowfall for the Tri-Cities. (Tri-Cities Data)Our prediction is also greater than the official thirty year average based on the period of 1981-2010 (13.3 inches).
For those waiting for the first snow, you might have to wait till December 8th (our average first snowfall of 0.1 inches or more).
Here are some more facts.
Earliest first snow in the Tri-Cities (0.1 inches or more): Oct. 20 (1989)
Latest first snow in the Tri-Cities (0.1 inches or more): Mar. 2 (1950)
Most snow in one season: 51 inches (1960) (27.9 inches fell in March)
Least snow in one season: Trace (1944)
We will release our final 2014-2015 winter outlook near the 1st day of winter.
Share with your friends and family!
-WCW1