The Tri-Cities has just experienced a week of unseasonably cold temperatures, which at times have dipped as much as 15-20° below mean climatology for this time of year. While it’s certainly not unheard of to see temperatures dive into the 20s, 30s, and 40s in November, the prevalence of these numbers in the past week was a bit excessive, and will gladly be replaced with a warming trend that takes us right through Thanksgiving, before the active pattern returns for next weekend.
Temperatures will start out frigid for Monday morning, before working their way to seasonable values in the 50s for most areas by the afternoon. We will see this milder trend continue into Tuesday and Wednesday with cold mornings near or below freezing, but seasonably tolerable afternoons in the 50s. A weak low pressure system to our south will provide some increase in cloud cover and a slight chance of a shower Tuesday into Wednesday. We may see a few areas reach 60° on Wednesday for the first time in 12 days; since November 11th. It’s been a cold pattern folks.
Mild Thanksgiving Weather:
Thanksgiving will feature partly sunny skies with highs in the 60s and clouds increasing ahead of our next system and the potential for just a few showers developing; primarily later in the day. Outdoor activities should be generally fine through sunset; though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. As it stands now, we will probably see shower coverage increase going into Black Friday as a deep trough and associated storm system work in from the west.
Image Courtesy or Tropical Tidbits
Black Friday & The Weekend:
The forecast for this upcoming weekend gets a little more blurry as forecast modeling is grappling with a deep trough and dynamic storm system that may accompany it, and bring heavy rain, strong winds, and perhaps even some wintry weather to parts of the Eastern US. The conditions from region to region is something that will be pinpointed more precisely as we get closer, but it appears as though rain may change to a period(s) of snow as the system wraps in colder air later Friday into Saturday over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and especially the Appalachians.
The Weather Prediction Center has outlined the central and northern Appalachians for the slight risk of heavy snow in their 4-7 day outlook which stretches as far south as northern portions of Southwest Virginia. This would include the Allegheny Mountains just outside of our forecast coverage area and further northeast into the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic. The Southern Appalachians in Tennessee and North Carolina will also have the potential for snowfall and based off what we’re seeing, may also have the chance for an accumulating snowfall event. It’s too early to get into definitive amounts at this time, but given the higher volume of travel for the holiday weekend, we feel it’s a good idea to inform you of the possibility. This may or may not be impactful for travel later Friday into Saturday across the higher elevations of West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee and North Carolina. For the Tri-Cities, we do stand a moderate chance of seeing at least some snow shower activity, but it may be mixed with rain at times and accumulation is something we will discuss at a later time if we see enough support for that idea. For the higher elevations, we do not want to discuss exact amounts at this time, but we do have slightly more confidence in a greater risk of at least some wintry weather to be aware of for those regions and that will be addressed in further detail in the days ahead.
Given the type of system showing on the models, a lot of the snowfall potential may be heavily dependent upon the track of the primary low, and a potential accompanying upper low behind it that *could* dive into our region and have an influence on how much or how little snowfall we actually see. Another scenario for this storm system is one that misses out on the northern jet stream so entirely that there isn’t enough cold air available and the system is much wetter, and a lot less wintry , but this is why we will be watching the forecast and will be updating accordingly through the week.
Stay tuned for the latest updates on social media and here on the site. We here at Tri-Cities Wx & Alert Crew wish you and your family and friends a delightful holiday week ahead.
– StormTrackerSacker
Assistant Forecaster TWAC2