Showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon, with an increase in activity later this evening. A few isolated cells may be strong to severe.
Risk Assessment:
Given some of the instability that may be present, isolated strong or severe thunderstorms are possible according to the Storm Prediction Center. This is a similar setup to our recent low-end storm risk, albeit focused closer to our area this time.
⚠️Thunderstorm Risks⚠️:
Severe Weather Risk Level: *Marginal* 1/5
(Only Isolated Areas See Severe Weather)
• Isolated Wind Gusts in Excess of 40 MPH
• Isolated Areas of Hail
• Heavy Rainfall / Isolated Flash Flooding
Timing:
Rain chances may increase by the afternoon, but some areas may not see a lot of activity until later in the evening. You can see a line congeal to move into the area later in the evening hours here on the extended HRRR data:
Overall, we are not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak, but one or two strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later Sunday or Sunday evening. A few disruptions to outdoor evening activities cannot be ruled out. This system is just ahead of a cold front that will bring a frigid blast of early-season chill by Tuesday. Make sure to check out Michael’s article on that.
-StormTrackerSacker
*Assistant Forecaster TWAC2*